Snap Insight: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is dead. What about the war in Gaza?

SINGAPORE: The opportunity to pull the Middle East back from the brink came and went within hours of Israel’s confirmation that it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Instead of capitalising on Israel’s tactical success to declare victory in Gaza, push for a ceasefire that could also end hostilities in Lebanon, and negotiate a prisoner exchange that would secure the release of the 101 remaining Hamas-held hostages, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the war would continue until the Israeli military liberated the captives.
More than a year into Israel’s devastating assault on Gaza in response to last year’s brutal Oct 7 attack by Hamas, Netanyahu’s problem is that he is pursuing two long-tested strategies that have failed to produce results.
Hamas and its associates killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians and non-combatants, in the Oct 7 attack. Since then, the Israeli military has rescued only eight of the hostages. Some 110 were freed as part of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange last November.
In the same vein, Israel’s history of targeted assassinations of Palestinians, Lebanese, and Iranians has failed to deal lethal blows to its enemies.
Last month’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of the Iranian-backed group’s military leadership, has not stopped Hezbollah from persistently firing rockets at Israeli targets and slowing Israeli ground incursions into south Lebanon.
Sinwar joins a long list of Hamas leaders Israel has killed in the last two decades. Sinwar was named Hamas’ leader after Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s political chief, in Tehran in July.
“If assassinations could end the resistance, it would have ended 90 years ago with the martyrdom of Izz al-Din al-Qassam,” said Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obaida in a posting on PalMedia.
With Hamas yet to comment on Sinwar’s killing, Abu Obeida’s comment likely preceded Israeli confirmation of Sinwar’s death but suggested the group had been prepared for it.
The group’s military wing is named after Izz al-Din al-Qassam, a Syrian preacher and rebel leader killed in pre-Israel Palestine by British police in 1935.
“Decapitation rarely works with networked organisations such as Hamas,” said Middle East scholar Andreas Krieg.
Even so, replacing Sinwar may not be that easy. Sinwar was one of Hamas’ few leaders who enjoyed significant support from both the group’s military and political wing, which operate in parallel.
In addition, Hamas will have to decide whether to return to the model of a leader in Gaza and a leader in exile as it maintained before Haniyeh’s killing or whether it appoints another overall Gaza-based successor to Sinwar.
Like in July, Hamas is likely to take its time to announce Sinwar’s successor.
Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, is widely viewed as a hardliner within the group and figures prominently as a potential successor if the group opts for a Gaza-based figure.
Hamas’ exile leaders offer a larger pool. They include Khaled Mashaal, a former head of Hamas, Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Khalil al-Hayya.
Mashaal is an unlikely choice because of his past support for the rebellion against Iranian-backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that led to a rupture between Hamas and Iran. A hostage negotiator like Abu Marzouk or Al-Hayya could prove the most interesting potential candidate.
In April, Al-Hayya suggested that Hamas would agree to a truce with Israel of five years or more, lay down its weapons, and convert into a political party if an independent Palestinian state is established in the territories conquered by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war.
Hamas amended its charter in 2017 to endorse a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but insisted that the relationship between the two states would be governed by a long-term ceasefire rather than recognition and diplomatic relations.
A long-term truce rather than a peace agreement “is the only way you can have disengagement; you can have a real ceasefire”, said Azzam Tamimi, a scholar and journalist with close ties to Hamas, told me previously.
“Most Palestinians would accept the idea that this conflict is not delivering what either side is expecting, and therefore, it’s not a bad idea to disengage to stop fighting … for 10 years, 15 years, or 30 years. During that period, people can have a respite. Then there will be a new generation emerging. Let future generations decide what they want to do about this conflict,” he added.  
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow focused on the Middle East at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.